But what if this picture were to change in the years to come with dramatic sea level rise and climate change?
I’m no alarmist. In fact, it’s quite possible that over the next one hundred years, the average increase temperature will be relatively modest. Scientists don’t know exactly what will happen. But that’s not an argument for doing nothing.
Quite the reverse.
Environmental economist Gernot Wagner of the Environmental Defense Fund, co-author of the book “Climate Shock,” says “first and foremost, climate change is a risk management problem.” Even if you are a climate skeptic and believe that the possibility of a global disaster is minimal, consider this: “Most of us have auto and home insurance to cover us in the event of a disaster.”
“If you had a 10% chance of having a fatal car accident, you’d take necessary precautions. If your finances had a 10% chance of suffering a severe loss, you’d reevaluate your assets. So if we know the world is warming and there’s a 10 percent chance this might eventually lead to a catastrophe beyond anything we could imagine, why aren’t we doing more about climate change right now?”
I don’t believe our house here is likely to be flooded or damaged by fire anytime soon, but I still pay a lot money each year for coverage just in case. Shouldn’t we be doing the same thing to deal with the risk of global warming?
Gernot makes the case for an insurance policy. A price would be placed on carbon emissions, either through a tax or a system of cap and trade.
This would mean ending subsidies for fossil fuels and boosting incentives for renewable forms of energy. “We need new technologies. We need energy efficient technologies,” Gernot said this week on the “How Do We Fix It?” podcast.
“You set the right incentives and get out of the way.” Use the market to reduce the CO2 emissions. Entrepreneurs and venture capitalists in Silicon Valley will do their thing.
Before the Industrial Age began in the late 18th Century, carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere were roughly 280 parts per million for thousands of years. Today the level is 400 parts per million and rising. Even if emissions were stabilized tomorrow the carbon number would continue to rise.
Scientists first made the link between greenhouse gas emissions and rising temperatures in the 19th century. Today, all but a handful of climate scientists say there is an urgent need for action to reduce carbon dioxide levels as soon as possible.
“We know we need to act,” says Gernot.
Top photo by Linda Jessee.